Agricultural Land Use and Food Security in Asia: Green Revolution and Beyond

This paper reviews the patterns of growth in agricultural production and land use existing in Asian countries and how they are affecting agricultural resources and food security. A comparative analysis of time series data from a variety of Asian countries is used to discern the past trends for food supply, agricultural resources and the growth of consumption base. Future trends of those indicators are inferred by employing a pattern recognition process used in defining problems for systems analysis. A system dynamics model of the underlying causal relationships is then developed and experimented with using computer simulation. The analysis illustrates that agricultural resources are being overstrained and the continuation of the policies causing this may precipitate a widespread decline in agricultural production across-board, thus threatening food security. The technological solutions to this problem may exist, but these will be ignored unless social and institutional reforms are introduced to create the incentives for adopting sustainable agricultural practices. The general directions for these reforms are outlined and the problem solving perspective adopted in this paper extended to address other developmental agenda.